Meridian Retail — VIC linehaul & fulfilment
In review2 high-risk$18.6m p.a. · 5 years + 2 options · responses due 29 Aug
Precedent matches3
View all contractsShared-user DC plus metro delivery, same network geometry · Comparable driver grade mix and EBA exposure · Multi-site retail replenishment profile
Outcome Won · margin eroded 2.3 pts by year one — the labour uplift assumption was under-called.
VIC metro delivery with the same monthly fuel levy mechanism · Similar indexation and reset structure
Outcome Won · fuel recovery ran at 87% with a two-month lag.
Fulfilment scope with an equivalent pick profile, same campus · Same WMS platform and ramp-up shape
Outcome Won · pick-rate ramp sat 21% below model for six months.
Assumption review7
| Assumption | This tender | Precedent actual | Risk | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Driver labour uplift −1.2 pts if repeated | 3.0% p.a. | Southbridge carried the same 3.0% assumption; its EBA settled at 4.6% in year one. | High | Meridian_Pricing_Model_v4.xlsx · Assumptions!C14 |
Fuel levy recovery −0.8 pts | 100% recovery, one-month lag | Tallowmere's identical mechanism recovered 87% with an effective two-month lag. | High | Meridian_Pricing_Model_v4.xlsx · Assumptions!C18 |
Pallet pick rate −0.6 pts in year one | 42 cartons/hr from go-live | Silvergum averaged 33 cartons/hr for its first six months while the WMS was tuned. | Watch | Meridian_Pricing_Model_v4.xlsx · Fulfilment!F22 |
Backhaul utilisation −0.4 pts | 35% of linehaul legs | Implemented contracts run 22–28% — Southbridge 24%, Kestrel 26%. | Watch | Meridian_Pricing_Model_v4.xlsx · Linehaul!D31 |
Warehouse labour ratio −0.3 pts | 1 : 1,150 cartons | Silvergum ran 1 : 980 until WMS tuning completed. | Watch | Meridian_Pricing_Model_v4.xlsx · Fulfilment!F27 |
Volume floor Protective | 96% contractual floor, quarterly true-up | Cormorant's identical clause held through a customer downturn. | OK | Meridian_RFQ_Response_Draft.docx · p.12 |
Trailer maintenance In range | $0.11 / km | Fleet actuals run $0.10–0.12 across Kestrel and Southbridge. | OK | Meridian_Pricing_Model_v4.xlsx · Linehaul!D44 |
Precedent figures are read from source cells — the model never computes arithmetic.
Commercial review checklist
4 of 9 completeRate card v4 ties to model output with no manual overrides found.
CPI + EBA blend with an annual reset each October.
96% floor with quarterly true-up — mirrors the Cormorant clause that held through a downturn.
Prime mover residuals at 32% align to fleet actuals.
3.0% p.a. against a 4.6% EBA precedent on Southbridge — the single largest downside in the model.
Monthly levy with one-month lag; Tallowmere's identical mechanism under-recovered by 13%.
No relief mechanism in months 1–3. Silvergum precedent argues for pricing the ramp explicitly.
35% assumed against a 22–28% precedent range — needs evidence from the customer's inbound profile or a re-price at 25%.
Handback provisions not yet costed; Southbridge exit modelling missed $0.4m of make-good.