Silvergum FMCG — 3PL fulfilment, Truganina
ErodingCommenced May 2026 · 5 years · from tender T-2026-009
Model margin
10.1%
Actual margin (LTM)
8.2%
Variance
−1.9 pts
Actuals coverage
3 mo
Margin vs model
Actual 8.2%Model 10.1%
May 26Jul 26
Assumption outcomes
| Assumption | Model | Actual | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
Pallet pick rate Steady-state rate assumed from go-live with no ramp allowance in the model. | 42 cartons/hr | 33 cartons/hr (ramp) | High |
Warehouse labour ratio | 1 : 1,150 cartons | 1 : 980 cartons | Watch |
Order profile Smaller orders mean more picks per carton than the model priced. | 14.2 cartons / order | 12.8 cartons / order | Watch |
Monthly actuals3 months
| Month | Revenue $m | Model % | Actual % | Δ pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26 | 1.31 | 10.1 | 8.6 | −1.5 |
| Jun 26 | 1.32 | 10.1 | 8.1 | −2.0 |
| Jul 26 | 1.32 | 10.1 | 8.2 | −1.9 |
Review note
Ramp postmortem: every erosion driver traces to steady-state assumptions applied from day one. Future fulfilment bids should price months 1–6 as a ramp with explicit relief or a stepped rate card.
Silvergum_Ramp_Postmortem.docx