Assumptions that caused margin erosion

Three assumptions in the Meridian model match patterns that eroded margin on implemented contracts. 1. Driver labour uplift — modelled at 3.0% p.a. Southbridge carried the same assumption and its EBA settled at 4.6% in year one, costing 1.2 pts of margin with no re-rate until year three. 2. Fuel levy recovery — modelled at 100% with a one-month lag. Tallowmere's identical mechanism recovered 87% with an effective two-month lag, worth −0.8 pts. 3. Pallet pick rate — 42 cartons/hr assumed from go-live. Silvergum averaged 33/hr for its first six months while the WMS was tuned. Combined downside if all three repeat: −2.6 pts against the 8.4% model margin.

Southbridge Foods (87% match) — shared-user DC plus metro delivery with the same network geometry, driver grade mix and EBA exposure. Won, then eroded 2.3 pts by year one on the labour assumption. Tallowmere Dairy (74%) — VIC metro delivery carrying the same monthly fuel levy mechanism and reset structure Meridian proposes. Won; fuel recovery ran at 87%. Silvergum FMCG (71%) — fulfilment scope on the same Truganina campus with an equivalent pick profile and WMS platform. Won; the ramp sat 21% below model for six months. No lost tender scored above 40% — the Meridian profile sits squarely in territory we have implemented before.