Southbridge Foods — National ambient DC & metro delivery
ErodingCommenced Oct 2024 · 5 years · from tender T-2024-011
Model margin
8.2%
Actual margin (LTM)
5.9%
Variance
−2.3 pts
Actuals coverage
18 mo
Margin vs model
Actual 5.9%Model 8.2%
Feb 25Jul 26
Assumption outcomes
| Assumption | Model | Actual | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
Driver labour uplift Settled well above model; margin cannot be recovered until the year-three re-rate. | 3.0% p.a. | 4.6% (EBA, year one) | High |
Backhaul utilisation | 30% of linehaul legs | 24% | Watch |
Warehouse labour ratio | 1 : 1,240 cartons | 1 : 1,150 cartons | Watch |
Volume | 100% of forecast | 98% | OK |
Monthly actuals18 months
| Month | Revenue $m | Model % | Actual % | Δ pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25 | 1.01 | 8.2 | 7.9 | −0.3 |
| Mar 25 | 1.01 | 8.2 | 7.8 | −0.4 |
| Apr 25 | 1.02 | 8.2 | 7.6 | −0.6 |
| May 25 | 1.02 | 8.2 | 7.7 | −0.5 |
| Jun 25 | 1.03 | 8.2 | 7.4 | −0.8 |
| Jul 25 | 1.03 | 8.2 | 7.1 | −1.1 |
| Aug 25 | 1.03 | 8.2 | 6.9 | −1.3 |
| Sep 25 | 1.04 | 8.2 | 6.8 | −1.4 |
| Oct 25 | 1.04 | 8.2 | 6.6 | −1.6 |
| Nov 25 | 1.05 | 8.2 | 6.4 | −1.8 |
| Dec 25 | 1.05 | 8.2 | 6.3 | −1.9 |
| Jan 26 | 1.06 | 8.2 | 6.1 | −2.1 |
| Feb 26 | 1.06 | 8.2 | 6.2 | −2.0 |
| Mar 26 | 1.06 | 8.2 | 6.0 | −2.2 |
| Apr 26 | 1.07 | 8.2 | 5.9 | −2.3 |
| May 26 | 1.07 | 8.2 | 6.0 | −2.2 |
| Jun 26 | 1.08 | 8.2 | 5.8 | −2.4 |
| Jul 26 | 1.08 | 8.2 | 5.9 | −2.3 |
Review note
FY25 contract review: margin erosion is structural, not operational. The site runs to plan — the labour uplift assumption was simply under-called at bid time. Recommend every future EBA-exposed bid carries uplift at the enterprise-agreement forecast, not CPI.
Southbridge_Contract_Review_FY25.docx