Tallowmere Dairy — Chilled metro delivery, VIC
ErodingCommenced Sep 2025 · 4 years · from tender T-2025-014
Model margin
9.5%
Actual margin (LTM)
7.8%
Variance
−1.7 pts
Actuals coverage
11 mo
Margin vs model
Actual 7.8%Model 9.5%
Sep 25Jul 26
Assumption outcomes
| Assumption | Model | Actual | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
Fuel levy recovery Diesel moves faster than the levy resets; the gap compounds in rising-price months. | 100%, one-month lag | 87%, two-month lag | High |
Chilled running cost / km | $0.34 | $0.36 | Watch |
Delivery window compliance | 98% | 97.2% | OK |
Monthly actuals11 months
| Month | Revenue $m | Model % | Actual % | Δ pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | 0.60 | 9.5 | 9.1 | −0.4 |
| Oct 25 | 0.60 | 9.5 | 8.8 | −0.7 |
| Nov 25 | 0.60 | 9.5 | 8.4 | −1.1 |
| Dec 25 | 0.61 | 9.5 | 8.2 | −1.3 |
| Jan 26 | 0.61 | 9.5 | 8.0 | −1.5 |
| Feb 26 | 0.61 | 9.5 | 7.9 | −1.6 |
| Mar 26 | 0.61 | 9.5 | 7.7 | −1.8 |
| Apr 26 | 0.62 | 9.5 | 7.8 | −1.7 |
| May 26 | 0.62 | 9.5 | 7.6 | −1.9 |
| Jun 26 | 0.62 | 9.5 | 7.9 | −1.6 |
| Jul 26 | 0.62 | 9.5 | 7.8 | −1.7 |
Review note
Post-implementation review: the levy mechanism is the whole story. Recommend fortnightly resets or pricing recovery at 85–90% on any future monthly-levy bid.
Tallowmere_Post_Implementation_Review.docx