Kestrel Building Supplies — Regional flatbed distribution
On modelCommenced Jun 2025 · 4 years · from tender T-2025-003
Model margin
7.4%
Actual margin (LTM)
7.6%
Variance
+0.2 pts
Actuals coverage
14 mo
Margin vs model
Actual 7.6%Model 7.4%
Jun 25Jul 26
Assumption outcomes
| Assumption | Model | Actual | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
Backhaul recovery Regional flatbed backloads ahead of plan — the only assumption in memory that beat its model. | 20% of legs | 26% | OK |
Maintenance cost / km | $0.11 | $0.12 | Watch |
Volume | 100% of forecast | 101% | OK |
Monthly actuals14 months
| Month | Revenue $m | Model % | Actual % | Δ pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | 0.46 | 7.4 | 7.2 | −0.2 |
| Jul 25 | 0.46 | 7.4 | 7.3 | −0.1 |
| Aug 25 | 0.46 | 7.4 | 7.5 | +0.1 |
| Sep 25 | 0.47 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 0.0 |
| Oct 25 | 0.47 | 7.4 | 7.6 | +0.2 |
| Nov 25 | 0.47 | 7.4 | 7.5 | +0.1 |
| Dec 25 | 0.47 | 7.4 | 7.7 | +0.3 |
| Jan 26 | 0.47 | 7.4 | 7.6 | +0.2 |
| Feb 26 | 0.47 | 7.4 | 7.5 | +0.1 |
| Mar 26 | 0.48 | 7.4 | 7.7 | +0.3 |
| Apr 26 | 0.48 | 7.4 | 7.6 | +0.2 |
| May 26 | 0.48 | 7.4 | 7.8 | +0.4 |
| Jun 26 | 0.48 | 7.4 | 7.6 | +0.2 |
| Jul 26 | 0.48 | 7.4 | 7.6 | +0.2 |
Review note
Twelve-month review: performing at or slightly above model. Crane-truck utilisation is the constraint to watch as volume grows.